As a society, we love blaming our problems on the random unpredictability of modern life, but new experiments are being conducted which conclude that many things we view as random really aren't. This is bad news for people who like to rationalize and good news for people who get paid to conduct silly mathematical experiments. Join us on a trip down the rabbit hole of probability. However, in contrast Alice's proverbial rabbit hole, the world we will explore is disconcertingly orderly. 1. Coin Tossing Is Not 50/50
Let's pretend that: A) We don't have a crippling gambling addiction, and B) We've made a bet with you. We'll flip a coin; you call it in the air. As the coin dramatically arcs end-over-end, you're already screwed. According to researchers at Stanford, when a person flips a coin it will land facing the same way it started more than half the time. So if it's heads-up before you flip it, calling heads will put you in the advantage over the long run.
Head Stanford researcher Persi Diaconis got his start in mathematics by figuring out various methods to prevent getting cheated at the seedy Caribbean casinos he frequented. Using a mechanical thumb he invented, Diaconis proved that a coin will always land the same way, if flipped the exact same way with the same amount of force. Thus, with the human element removed, flipping a coin becomes as predictable as a Mormon's wardrobe.
2. Rock-Paper-Scissors
A game of rock, paper, scissors seems simple -- two people choose an item and compare. But according to the World Rock-Paper-Scissors society's lengthy strategy guide, picking between rock, paper and scissors involves thousands of calculations. The World RPS organization pretty much states that Rock-Paper-Scissors can be won entirely on strategy, and that figuring out your opponents' tells is the key to consistently winning.
In fact, World RPS goes so far as to intimate that those who think otherwise are noobs. From their FAQ: "The game is often played by novices as a game of chance. However, the true beauty and complexity of an RPS match becomes clear when advanced strategies are employed."
3. Ping-Pong-Ball Lotteries
What about million-dollar games of chance, such as the lottery -- are they random enough? When it comes to ping-pong-ball lotteries, investigators say "no." The concept is simple -- dozens of numbered ping pong balls are loaded into a machine-blasting jets of air. Because of the seemingly unpredictable and chaotic motion of the ping-pong balls, these lotteries were once regarded as the epitome of mechanical randomization.
In fact, they require quite a bit of maintenance. For example, the balls must be evenly weighed before the draw, to make sure higher numbers don't weigh more due to having more ink. They must also be inspected after the draw, to assure that nicks and dents in the balls don't affect the next drawing. This problem was exploited in the Pennsylvania lottery in 1980 when the announcer of the lottery drawing weighted all of the balls except a select few. When computer-generated lottery machines were introduced, they were heralded as a new way to assure complete random lottery drawings. However ...
4. Computer-Generated Lotteries
The problem with generating numbers by computer is that the computer program has to be written by a human. Most likely this human is a computer programmer who hates his job programming lottery machines all day and would love to win the lottery. So, lottery-generating computers can be altered by cheating computer geniuses.
They can also be altered by stupid computer-programming slackers who suck at their jobs. In 2007, the Tennessee lottery revealed that a programming error prevented the same number from being picked twice. The investigation revealed that this was indeed a mistake, as it did not significantly allow a knowing person to cheat and profit. However, drawings were done for nearly a month with the fraudulent software, meaning that no one who played the lottery in Tennessee that month got a fair shake.
5. Spinning a Roulette Wheel
Armed with modern computer and battery technology, the Eudaemonic group managed to conceal a computer in the heel of a shoe, inputting data for the velocities of ball and wheel by tapping a toe-switch and receiving a signal through vibrating pads in the heel indicating the group of eight numbers into which the ball would fall. They demonstrated that, although tiny differences in variables such as the way the croupier launched the ball had an enormous impact on the final result, the action of a roulette ball could be predicted using conventional physics.
In fact, this only represents the most sophisticated end of the roulette "cheating" spectrum. Before casinos got wise, it was possible for anyone to walk into a casino and figure out how to gain an advantage on the roulette wheel simply by observing. The most famous case of this was Joseph Jagger who concocted a roulette-wheel scheme in 1873. Jagger figured out that one wheel was quite biased, producing certain numbers more than others. He began winning, and a cat-and-mouse chase ensued, with the casino constantly adjusting the wheel, and Jagger adjusting his play scheme, accordingly. By the time the casino had finally "fixed" their roulette wheel, Jagger had netted a sum worth about $6 million (in today's dollars).
6. Picking Names Out of a Hat
One popular method of deciding an outcome randomly is to write down all possibilities and draw them out of a hat. But this method is not completely random. Ink and pencil lead have weight, and slips of paper that weigh more have a higher likelihood of going to the bottom when the hat is mixed up. This means that shorter names are more likely to be picked.
If you don't want your name drawn, give the longest version of your name that you can, such as "Laurence Tureaud the First." If you want your name to be drawn, use a short name, such as "Mr. T." I pity the fool who be drawin' someone else's name outta my flamboyantly festive hat.
7. Slot Machines
Ever since the first slot machine was invented in 1887, these gambling devices have been pre-programmed to pay out on a set table. And the predictability of slot machines doesn't stop there; every element is carefully calculated to maximize profit, including the positioning of the machines, which is why so many gamblers play more than one machine. Casino operators noticed these multiple-machine players and started putting high-payout machines next to ridiculously-low paying ones to ensure that, even if the player is winning consistently with one machine, another will quickly suck out all of their profit and more.
Also, slot machines' programs are accessible to human corruption. Ronald Dale Harris was a computer programmer responsible for coding many of Las Vegas's new slot machines in the early 1990s. Harris changed the code so certain machines weren't random and would pay him huge sums of money. So, it seems reality isn't as random as it seems.
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Monday 09 November
By Takahashi
One of the major bonuses about living in Vegas is you get to know how the odds play out and the real truth behind the casinos. As part of doing the occasional magic tricks, or dealing cards. You really can start to pick up on ways to change the odds.
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