Don't tell Mystery this, but finding a suitable mate may be a science, not an art.That's what one hard-up economist explores in his paper, "Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend: An Application of the Drake Equation to Love in the U.K.," in which he uses a brainy math formula to estimate the number of potential girlfriends in London.
His findings are less than encouraging.
The lovelorn economist is Peter Backus, a native of Seattle and a fourth year PhD candidate and Teaching Fellow in the Department of Economics at the University of Warwick, near London.
His offbeat paper, which he devised after a three-year girlfriend drought, is based on the Drake Equation, which is normally used to estimate the number of highly evolved civilizations that may exist in our galaxy.
The equation, which might make you nauseous, states that:

Yeah, we have no idea what it means either. But Backus does. And he decided to put the formula to work for romantic purposes. "It seemed like a natural thing to do," says Backus in an exclusive interview with Asylum. "Basically, it was a way of quantifying my dismay."
Backus reimagined the equation by inserting U.K. population figures along with the general parameters for his potential girlfriend: a woman between the age of 24 and 34, with a university degree, whom he finds attractive. Simple enough. But there are complications. First, the woman in question must find him attractive (a 1-in-20 chance, he estimated). Second, she must herself be single (50-50). Lastly, he must get along with her (1-in-10).
The result of the equation? Of the roughly 30 million women in the U.K., only 26 are potential mates for Backus. In his conclusion to the paper, Backus expresses this more depressingly: "On a given night in London, there is a 0.0000034 percent chance of meeting one of these special people."
But somehow, he did just that. Asylum is pleased to report that Backus now has a girlfriend of about six months. "She's from London," he says. "And she meets all my criteria."
If you've come up empty in your own search for a significant other, Backus's research should give you some measure of solace that being girlfriend-less doesn't necessarily make you a loser. But maybe it's time to move out of your parents' house.
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Comments:
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Wednesday 13 January
By borisbadenovisback
Well, I really hope he gets to hide his salami but notwithstanding any of the other reasons mentioned hereinabove and hereinbelow, the fact of the matter is that British women prefer British men. Perfectly understandable unless you are a "multicultural" idiot who thinks this sort of thing does not matter. In any event, as a very lovely British lass at a British university (which we happened to be attending) once told me in a moment of complete candor, Americans are foreigners just like everyone else who is not British. The only ones who dated foreigners were desperate or dysfunctional and somehow that does explain Lady Di and her dalliances with muslims.
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Wednesday 13 January
By Miriam Alario
I guess the real question is did he get graded on the proper use of the equation, and did he pass?
A for effort...
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Wednesday 13 January
By Linda
But would he be all over them?
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Wednesday 13 January
By changz
huh... he can only get along with 1 in 10 girls? Is he sure about that? LOL.
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Thursday 14 January
By Globalcnp
Wrote something similar in December that also includes people's tendency to look within their community (i.e., race, nationality, region,etc.) groups. The mathematics is definitely not as sophisticated as this guy's and assuming even distribution.
Yup, pretty dismal.
http://globalcnporg.wordpress.com/2009/12/19/foundation-for-global-collaboration-and-peace_day-67/
Would be great if someone wants to rework the assumptions into the Drake framework.
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Thursday 14 January
By anchovie19
Come back to Seattle!
Reply
Saturday 16 January
By Svetlana
The community needs to know that you CANNOT take a smaller number away from a bigger number, and that you CAN take a bigger number away from a smaller number!!!! Please tell the world that!!
Reply
Monday 18 January
By Sheldon
Application of some modified version of the Drake Equation may be used to determined the probability of desirable persons unknown, but various applications give differing results and skew one's expectation and the answer that everyone really wants to know.
In one case, a modified Drake Equation was used to estimate the probable number of eligible mates, period.
This application differs from determining the probable number of eligible mates who satisfy a select number of criterion.
For example, the number of eligible woman is different from the number of eligible women who, say, like Star Trek.
The more conditions or criterion of selectivity imposed, the more restricted the set of potential sought mates.
The point I am attempting to make is how the Drake Equation is applied, in modified form, effects the answer which may or may not address the central or primary objective.
Prima fica I have no doubt that there exists a non-zero number of potential, eligible soulmates, borrowing the local population within a particular geography.
Before applying the conditions of selectivity e.g. compatible political persuasion, tolerated religious attitudes, etc., let's address the factor of how desirable the searcher is to the potential soulmates. In other words, how attractive the person doing the searching for a soulmate matters and I shall claim garners more weight than any other condition for selectivity.
The quick retort is adding the measure of desirability as a factor into the modified Drake Equation.
That would be an error because the factors in the Drake Equation are probabilistic values but the measure of desirability is an absolute value -- measuring how attractive the searcher is.
Put plainly, how attractive some one is is a measured or calculated value not a probabilistic value, some number that falls within the measure space of the Reals in the interval [0,1].
In other words, any modified formed of the Drake Equation is insufficient to accurately and fairly determined the answer to the primary question: How likely it is for some one to find their soulmate of mutual attraction?
In conclusion, let me repeat.
Application of the Drake Equation will only be enough to answer the question: How likely does there to exist eligible soulmates?
I posit for anyone that is a non-zero number.
Second, if one adds criterion thereby restricting the number of potential eligible soulmates, such as requiring a certain level of education, a particular political view, or that their potential soulmate must like sushi, then with each additional criterion, the selectivity reduces the number of potential eligible soulmates tending toward zero.
A major problem is I do not think it possible to collect the data to determine a satisfactory and accurate answer/value. In other words, if some one only prefers heterosexual women who like both Star Trek and sushi but hate Democrats and Adam Sandler, I question seriously how any one is going to collect the statistical data, assuming such data exists in some form, that will give an estimate of such potential existing persons.
The factor that matters most, so I claim, more than the prior probable values is an answer to the question: how attractive would any potential eligible soulmate find you to be? Such a value is not probabilistic and therefore cannot be determined nor factored in, as it were, through any modification the Drake Equation.
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Sunday 24 January
By Daguite
Je pense que ceci est juste un jeu pour amuser car trouver une fille remplissant les conditions spécifiées dans son texte à Londres n'est pas aussi improbable qu'il le dit.
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